Michu vs Lukaku - A statistical comparison

With Swansea rumoured to be looking to bring the Belgian striker to South Wales, how did he compare with Michu this season?

Romelu Lukaku. Age:20 Height: 6'3"

I'm still very skeptical regarding our prospects of landing Romelu Lukaku on loan next season. Ok, so certain things do add up; Lukaku himself has stated that he'd like to go out on loan next season again if he's not going to be regularly included in the Chelsea squad, but for the life of me I can't figure out why he wouldn't be. Europe's highest scoring teenager this term, it's remarkable to me that more attention isn't being paid to a player who finished the season by scoring a hat-trick against Manchester United.

It's possible that as the summer unfolds more clubs may come in for him, but with Chelsea looking set to appoint Jose Mourinho it's likely he'll fancy bringing in his own striker from elsewhere, so it may well be that Lukaku finds himself looking at another loan move. While West Brom do play a slightly more direct style of football than the Swans, looking at his performance this season against Michu's isn't that much of a squiff comparison as, for the second season running, the Swans finished the season in very close proximity to the Baggies. When you consider that Michu hit 18 goals to Lukaku's 17, it would seem to indicate that the team's around them also fared similarly.

Miguel Michu. Age: 27 Height: 6'1"

Michu made 35 starts in the league, and while Lukaku made the same number of appearances 15 of those were off the bench, so he's starting to look good already.  His pass completion is 72.1% (averaging 16.3 successful passes per game) to Michu's 78.7% (32 PPG), but in fairness to the Belgian he plays the same amount of key passes per game as Michu (1) and has four assists - double that of the Spaniard. They both average around three shots a game (Lukaku has 2.8 and Michu 3.1), but when you look at dribbles again the former Anderlecht man comes out on top, successfully going past his man 0.9 times a game to Michu's 0.2. In fairness to Michu, no-one is expecting him to go on a mazy dribble and beat five men...

Interestingly, when you look at defensive stats it seems Michu puts a shift in. The Spaniard makes 1.3 tackles per game to Lukaku's 0.2, and 0.9 interceptions per game to the Belgian's 0.1. That does result, however in Michu fouling his man more than twice as often - 1.4 times per game as opposed to Lukaku's 0.6, but a foul a game isn't that bad a thing. Keeps the defenders on their toes and all that. Michu also makes 1.1 clearances per game - again a much bigger number than the 0.3 managed by Lukaku - but to be honest I'm not that fussed on our striker tracking back and putting himself about. When you look at goals scored v minutes played, Lukaku has 17 goals in 2146 minutes while Michu has 18 in 3171 - the Spaniard has played around 50% more football so for the young Chelsea striker to have got 17 goals in a mid-table side is truly an impressive achievement. It works out that Lukaku has a goal every 126 minutes, while Michu has one every 176. 

It seems in every department (apart from defense, but we don't want him doing that) Lukaku really is a class act, and seeing as he only turned 20 ten days ago there is a whole load of room for improvement too. As has been stated, Europa League football could be the clincher but that's assuming no other club who've qualified for Europe come in for him, which seems a stretch of the imagination. That being said, the only other suitor being mooted at the moment is West Ham, which, as I mentioned yesterday, I don't think we have to worry about. Big Sam? Ha. 

All in all, a very impressive set of numbers from the Belgian. Obviously, you have to watch him play to know whether he'll fit the team but from everything I've seen of him he seems a class act, and what's more I've also heard he's tee-total and very much a good egg. Only Van Persie, Berbatov and Benteke had better "chance conversion rates" than Lukaku this season, who converted 21% of opportunities presented to him, and it's likely with increased game time and experience his level of performance will kick on again, and I for one would have no objection to that happening in South Wales.

Michu & Lukaku up front? Yes please. Sign him up!

Tiendalli in Dutch squad, Leon to have hernia op & West Ham enter Lukaku race

 

Tiendalli offered new contract & called up to Holland squad!

Swansea full-back Dwight Tiendalli

Quite a bit of news today; let's start with Dwight Tiendalli. The Surinam-born former Ajax youth team player will surely have a grin on his face at the moment, as he has recently been the recipient of two bits of good news. Firstly, he was offered a new deal by the Swans, which was no more than his performances this term have deserved. Every fan I've spoken to has been a fan of the marauding full-back, and his European experience could be very handy next year. Within the space of a few hours it was also confirmed that Dwight would, for the first time, join up with the Holland squad as they travel to play friendlies against Indonesia and China. While the opponents are far from auspicious, playing for your country is a privilege few will enjoy during their careers, and he will no doubt be excited at getting an opportunity to showcase his abilities on the international stage for the first time. He'll be in good company too, as teammates Michel Vorm & Jonathan De Guzman have also been called up, so at least there'll be some friendly faces in the squad. Incidentally, Ajax have three players in the Dutch squad too - can you imagine being told ten years ago that the Swans would have the same amount of players representing Holland as Ajax? Incredible stuff!

Tiendalli himself seemed unsure as to goings on as of Sunday, however it seems things have now progressed and we may see him sign on for at least one more year in the very near future.

Leon to undergo double hernia operation

Fresh from coming out with a plea for Ashley Williams to stay in SA1, it's been announced that Leon will have surgery, after playing through the pain barrier in order to see out the season.

"My groin has felt quiet tight, but I wanted to play through the pain and finish the season. I missed parts of training in that time but it was necessary to ensure I was available for the games, although I did struggle a little bit in the last four to six weeks. I've had one hernia since December, and a scan around four weeks or so ago showed I had another one."

"I've had a hernia operation before, around 2005, so I know the procedure. It means I will come in during the summer to do some rehab which will make sure I'm ready for pre-season training.

"Next season will be huge for us as we will be involved in four competitions, so I want to make sure I'm fit and ready when we report back for pre-season."            Leon Britton

It seems that Leon has been keen to further his "Jack Bar Steward" reputation by grinning and bearing pain in the name of the cause, but the indication is he should be fine for next season. Despite picking up the odd recurring injury over the years Leon should be a firm fixture in the Swansea City midfield for years to come; news which will no doubt please Swansea fans to a man.

West Ham reportedly enter race for Romelu Lukaku's signature

I mentioned this as more of a joke than anything else. It's been reported for months that the Swans are interested in signing the Belgian teenager, however rumours resurfaced recently indicating there may yet be something in this, despite Lukaku seemingly being "out of Swansea's league" as it were. European football will no doubt help if we are in for him, however I will be absolutely amazed if he decided West Ham was the best available offer for the 2013/2014 season. They have just agreed a fee for Andy Carroll, and play nasty, nasty football; while a partnership featuring the two would be one of the more physically imposing in world football it's unlikely anyone will ever have to defend against it. Lukaku to West Ham? No sodding chance...

Leon Britton - "Swans must retain Ashley Williams"

So, the season has drawn to a close. Over the next few months journalists, bloggers and reporters will be sniffing around for stories as the lack of competitive action impacts upon the amount of content available to fill column inches, but for now at least there's an abundance of post-season analysis and comment available for our perusal.

First up is Leon's interview where he stated his belief that the Swans should pull out all the stops in a bid to retain Ashley Williams services for next season.

"It is vitally important that we keep someone like Ashley. He has been fantastic since he joined us and he is the captain now. He has been absolutely brilliant, and it's no surprise he has been linked with Liverpool and Arsenal.

"It is a testament to the player because he has been outstanding, but hopefully we can keep hold of him. We would all love him to stay and we will see what the summer holds but hopefully come the start of August he will still be here."

"I think it is important we spread the games around the squad. We have seen this season with the likes of Newcastle and Stoke - two teams who have done well in the Europa League - that you can struggle a bit in the league.

"It can take its toll, but I am sure the management and staff have plans in place to bring players in."  Leon Britton

People have been using Newcastle as an example of what can happen if you try and compete in Europe with a fairly thin squad. They finished last season with 65 points - a massive twenty four more than they accrued this term. Granted, there were other factors involved in their dismal form this year but ultimately it seems the extra games really affected their league performance. Given that Newcastle enjoyed some success in the Europa League and actually had a crack at it, their experiences are likely to be more comparable to Swansea's impending Euro adventure than Stoke's the year before, where Pulis didn't really take it seriously and put out a second team against Valencia (the Potters unsurprisingly went down 2-0).

Laudrup has stated that if (and that's a big if) the Swans retain their entire squad (minus players he wants to ship out) he'd like to sign six or seven players for next season. He's also hinted that some of his transfer targets would "get fans excited" so it seems we may be in for a surprise or two over the close season. As for Ashley Williams, would he go? Liverpool seem set to sign Kolo Toure on a free, which would seemingly make Anfield an unlikely destination for the Swansea captain, however with Arsenal consistently rumoured to be interested you feel a bid is now imminent. Would he go? It would be hard, if not impossible for him to turn down such a move, but you never know. 

As I mentioned in a previous blog here, it's not always sensible to cash in. Ok, the Swans could probably get £10mil, maybe a bit more, but we don't necessarily need it and selling Ash would rip the heart out of the defence, the team and the dressing room. He's been exceptional since signing for us and has come on so far; I remember when he was still rough around the edges - any time he came for a header I winced because generally he'd fly past the man and miss the ball, but I think playing alongside Garry Monk has made Williams into the defender he is. He now has a greater appreciation of how to read the game and despite the incessant abuse he doles out to Monk you feel he appreciates how much playing alongside him has helped his game. 

If he wants to go, then obviously we can't stop him. That's the one thing no-one knows and you won't find many Swansea fans who'd begrudge him his chance at playing for an established Champions League club. If and when he does move on, it's going to be one hell of a task replacing him, and the Swans are probably already keeping tabs on options in case he does up sticks. Leon clearly agrees that selling Ash would leave a massive void and it's always questionable whether you can fill such a void without suffering on the pitch. So far though the Swans higher-ups have performed miracles in terms of player recruitment and I don't expect that to stop now. Onwards and upwards, eh!

Swansea 0 - 3 Fulham - Moving swiftly on...

I thought it best to ponder yesterday's match for a while before writing anything about it. Pre-game, the atmosphere in and around the stadium was great. The sun was shining, everyone was looking forward to the game and most people were confident of at least a point. As it turned out, it wasn't to be...

The game itself was a fairly timid affair, and definitely had an end of season feel to it. I don't feel there is much point in over-analysing the game yesterday, and to be honest I don't want to either. The first Fulham goal seemed like it was due to some overly zealous defending on Chico's part, the second saw Berbatov running free after no pressure was put on the passer (and in my opinion Vorm went down too easily), while the third was a tap-in from a rebound with only seconds remaining.

All of the goals can be considered disappointing, while another thing worth mentioning was the performance of Lee Mason. He endeared himself to Swans fans by disallowing a perfectly good Roland Lamah goal at the Hawthorns earlier in the season, and made sure no-one could accuse him of favouring the home team yesterday, allowing a series of fouls on Swansea players without caution before deciding to break the yellows out when the Fulham players got fouled instead. Ok, he only booked two Swans' players however I felt it was a particularly poor show yesterday. A perfect summation of his performance was when, deep into first half injury time (which had arisen due to extended play-acting from Emmanuel Frimpong) he blew the half time whistle with the Swans attacking the Fulham box. You rarely see referee's blow up there, but Lee Mason isn't your average referee.

I can adequately compare my feelings about the game yesterday to the experience of trying to buy a pint at half time. I don't like missing any of the game, so I waited until the half time whistle, before nipping to the gents and then trying to queue for a pint. With minutes left until the second half kicked off I'd progressed about a third of the way through the queue, and what's more (as you all know) your lager option is Carling - and whether it's poured straight from a can or from a tap it's a nasty, nasty drink. Service at the stadium has to improve - at present the club are literally throwing money away as people are growing frustrated with what is a very unprofessional level of service. I know it's subcontracted, but there's no urgency about the staff at the food and drink kiosks in what should be a frenetic working environment.

Anyway, rant over. As stated I don't like to criticse too heavily given the team's exploits this season. It's understandable performances dipped after winning a cup, but to finish 9th is a great achievement and will have seen us pick up a bit of extra TV cash to boot. With the season now over, attention will turn to transfer wheelings and dealings, and the forthcoming Europa League draw. I for one can't wait, and with Laudrup hinting that some of his transfer targets will excite Swansea fans we could be in for an exciting summer yet...

Swansea v Fulham - Match preview, team news, statistics & analysis

The Match

Swansea are looking to end the season with bang after an impressive performance last time out in an emotionally charged affair with Manchester United. A number of improved performances have seen the Swans take a point from Man City, beat Wigan away and push United close, so they'll be looking to take three points from Fulham to end the season on a high. The Swans are already guaranteed 9th place, however a win over Fulham (and a West Brom loss to Man Utd)  would see the Swans finish in 8th place - a remarkable result given pre-season apprehensions.

Fulham have hardly produced inspiring football of late, however with Premier League safety assured they're likely to play with a freedom that's been missing over recent weeks. They've lost six of their last seven games however, and Fulham fans will hope their players have one last effort in them as they attempt to bring some points home from South Wales. The Londoners haven't kept a clean sheet since March though, so goals are a distinct possibility this Sunday.

Last time out

Fulham 1 - 2 Swansea City

The Swans came out on top at Craven Cottage thanks to goals from Danny Graham and Jonathan De Guzman. Graham gobbled up a rebound after Nathan Dyer had forced David Stockdale into a save (we wanted to buy him once, remember?), before Pablo capitalised on a poor clearance from the keeper to feed in De Guzman, who put the Swans two up. A late goal from Bryan Ruiz saw Fulham pile the pressure on late on, but the Swans were good value for the three points.

Prior Form (most recent at top)

Premier League                 Man Utd        2 - 1  Swansea

Premier League                 Wigan           2 - 3  Swansea
Premier League                 Swansea      0 - 0   Man City   
Premier League                 Chelsea         2 - 0  Swansea
Premier League                 Swansea      0 - 0   Southampton

Premier League                Fulham          1 - 3  Liverpool
Premier League                Fulham          2 - 4  Reading
Premier League                Everton           1 - 0  Fulham        

Premier League                Fulham          0 - 1  Man Utd
Premier League                Fulham          0 - 3  Man Utd

Team News

Swansea welcomed Chico Flores and Michu back against Manchester United, while Neil Taylor made his first start since overcoming his ankle injury. Ki Sung-Yeung (dead leg) and Michel Vorm (concussion) should both return to the squad after missing the Wigan game.

Fulham will be without Keiron Richardson after he came off 15 minutes into the Liverpool game last week, suffering from a hamstring injury, while Simon Davies (thigh), Ashkan Dejagah (ankle) and Mahamadou Diarra (knee) all look set to miss out.


Trivia (courtesy of various other sites);

• Swansea have won 35%, drawn 45% and lost 20% of their last 20 home games.

• Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their last 20 home games.

• In their last 20 home games against teams positioned below them in the table, Swansea have won 12, drawn 8 and lost 0 of these matches

• Fulham have won 20%, drawn 35% and lost 45% of their last 20 away games.

• Fulham have conceded in 80% of their last 20 away games.

• Fulham have failed to score in 45% of their last 20 away games.

• Fulham have lost 6 of their last 7 games, have currently lost their last five games in a row.

• Swansea have beaten Fulham in all three of their Premier League meetings, conceding just one goal.

• Swansea are one of only two teams this season yet to win a penalty (alongside Tottenham). Charlton in 2004-05 were the last side to go a whole Premier League season without winning a penalty.

• Just 11% of Swansea's goals (five of 47) have come from set-pieces this season, which is the lowest ratio in the Premier League.

• Swansea have scored the highest percentage of goals (70%) in the second half of matches in the league this season.

• This is the 63rd meeting between the sides. Fulham have won 30 times, Swansea 22 and there have been 10 draws.

• Fulham have lost five successive Premier League games. They have only lost six in a row once before in the competition - between February and March 2002.

• Eleven of Dimitar Berbatov's 14 league goals for Fulham have come before half-time. Only Clint Dempsey has scored more goals (17 last season) in a single Premier League season for the club.

• They have thrown away 23 points from winning positions and gained just five from losing positions this season.
• Only Robin van Persie (12) has scored more goals at home than Michu (11) in the Premier League this season.

Completely guessed lineups

Straight from the "horse's mouth";

Michael Laudrup was effusive in his analysis of his debut season in the Premier League:

"We are 100 per cent sure of finishing in the top ten, things will have to go very badly for us not to be ninth and we even have a possibility of finishing eighth. Hopefully Manchester United can do us a favour and if we then beat Fulham, we would be eighth.  

"That would be like winning the championship — that's the maximum for us when you look at the seven clubs above. We can say now that we will probably end up first or second in what I would call our league. When you add that to the cup win, that's an amazing season."

Martin Jol responded to speculation about prospective movers and shakers in the Fulham camp ahead of the close season:

"If people make up a little story and I speak about new players coming in, of course you need a little bit of money. They associate us with the chairman and he has to give us the funds, but we are healthy club. We will try to get some players in so there is no story. I am very happy. It is 10 minutes from my house, my girl is going to school and she loves it there. She had her first competitive match yesterday against another school and they beat them. She was happy, I am happy, the missus is happy and hopefully I can make the fans happy again as well."

Analysis

The time has come for the Swans to play the last match of the season. The exploits of Michael Laudrup and his band of unassuming players have surpassed what any of us would have expected, and with the legendary Dane set to continue as Swans boss next year and European football to boot there's plenty of reasons for Swansea fans to look forward to the coming campaign.

Swansea seem to have turned the corner after a poor run of results, and will be looking at this as a more than winnable fixture. They haven't won at home since beating Newcastle 1-0 (thanks to a late Luke Moore goal) on the 2nd of March, however three of the four games which have passed at the Liberty since then have been Arsenal, Spurs and Man City, so to criticise would, as I've said before, possibly be a little on the harsh side. That being said, performances had dipped and Laudrup admitted that we'd possibly been "over-performing" earlier in the season, so it's pleasing to see performance levels increase once again as the Swans look to finish the season with a bang.

A lot of people I've spoken to seem to think this could be a bit of a dead rubber, however I'm not sure. Both teams play an attractive brand of football, but in all honesty there are quite a few players in the Fulham squad who I know next-to-nothing about. The obvious threats will be Bryan Ruiz, Dimitar Berbatov and Alexander Kacaniklic - if the Swans can starve this trio of possession it will go a long way to assuring victory. I fancy the Swans to have too much for Fulham, especially with a boisterous home crowd eager to see a home win for the first time in two and a half months.

Question marks remain about Vorm and Ki's fitness - I'm hoping the Korean is fit enough to play some part but it may well be that De Guzman is selected ahead of him as he seems to have been preferred of late. I'm hoping Gerhard Tremmel retains his place, he's been excellent for us and deserves another start after missing out on games once Vorm regained fitness following an earlier groin injury. Whether the Dutchman is fit after suffering concussion in the Wigan game remains to be seen, but whoever lines up between the sticks is likely to put in a quality shift so we don't have to worry too much there.

On paper, I'd have thought that defensively Fulham would be alright given the calibre of both Brede Hangeland and Aaron Hughes at centre-back, however a run of five straight defeats (and 6 in 7) clearly indicates something is up in South West London. Hopefully they won't find a way of remedying their own bad run as a win for the Swans would continue a recent upward curve which saw us hold Man City to a draw and beat Wigan away in a game which saw Wigan display just why they were relegated.

Shocking defending aside, you've got to put the chances away when they're presented to you and the Swans did just that. With mid-table rivals West Brom entertaining Man Utd the Baggies need to win to guarantee they'll hold on to 8th place. A Swans win would see them finish the season on 49 points - two more than they managed last season, and a win would also see them finish the season with a goal difference of 0 or better. Quite a feat for a club the size of the Swans.

There is of course the possibility that the game could develop into something approaching a lethargic chess match, but I don't think the crowd would stand for that. It's the end of the season, and everyone will be in party mode - goals are required. Can the Swans deliver? I think so. If we go with the three wingers I can't see Fulham being able to keep us out, however I also can't see us keeping a clean sheet (Hangeland from a corner?). I'm going to be in the North Stand for the first time tomorrow - it'll be interesting to see what kind of noise the travelling fans generate. If the Swans score early, they could be in for a torrid afternoon.

Let's hope it's sunny at least...

Iechyd Da.